复杂系统视域下中国“城市矿产”产业脆弱性研究

The Vulnerability Analysis and Strategy for the China Urban Mines Industry

摘要:

“城市矿产”是对工业及城镇化过程产生的电子、金属、橡胶、朔料等废弃资源再生利用的规模化、产业化。本文从社会化大循环背景出发,研究我国“城市矿产”产业上、中、下游生态链的网络结构,从“供应、回收、处理、市场”四环节分析其产业脆弱性结构以及影响因素,提炼了产业系统脆弱性因子。根据产业集聚过程的内、外动因,从管理水平、企业规模、技术水平等8个方面构建三级产业系统脆弱性评价指标体系。采用层次分析法(AHP)分析了各项指标及权重,寻找影响系统稳定的关键因子并进行客观评价。最后提出“微观调节、中观协调、宏观调控”的系统性防范对策：① 微观调节。根据系统脆弱性结构模型及脆性因子影响等级,调节产业系统内“中心强度、网络丰度、节点异质、联结频度和关系质量”等测度变量,控制系统脆性激发路径,增强产业网络结构可靠性。②中观协调。从全产业链环节确保源头供应稳定可靠,回收体系规范有序,资源处理集中高效,市场效益持续均衡。③宏观调控。主要从社会化大循环的系统层面,提出从政府资金引导、法律约束、体制改革、技术创新、财税支撑等方面宏观政策建议,从而为避免产业结构失稳提供有效指导。

Abstract:

The "Urban Mines" industrial structure and influence factors of vulnerability were studied based on industrial chain link analysis. The Urban Mines industry vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed. The indicators and the weights of the evaluation system were analyzed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The key factor to influence the system stability was estimated objectively. Finally from the perspective of social circulation "micro adjustment, medium coordination and macro control" systemic countermeasures: (1) microscopic regulation.According to the structure of system vulnerability model and brittle factors affect the level of conditioning industry system in abundance, the network "center intensity, the nodes are heterogeneous, coupling relationship between frequency and quality" measures such as variables, excitation control system brittleness path, strengthen industrial network structure reliability.(2) medium.From the whole industry chain link to ensure stable and reliable source of supply, recycling system specification and orderly, concentrated and efficient resource processing, continuous equilibrium market benefit.(3) macroeconomic regulation and control.From the aspect of the systemic circulation of social system, put forward from the government channel funds, law and system reform, technology innovation, macro policy suggestion to the fiscal and taxation support, so as to provide effective guidance to avoid the instability of industrial structure.