大型复杂项目的网络稳定性及其治理

The Stability of Large Complex Projects and Government

摘要:

大型复杂项目的稳定性是项目成功的关键因素，它既受利益相关方网络扰动的影响又受风险免疫策略的保护，因此，为提高项目稳定性人们可以从网络结构优化及扰动控制两个方面着手。在网络结构优化上，由于项目稳定性与项目网络结构节点流量、网络边权、约束参数有显著关系，扰动不同时显著关系不同，并可用网络状态量的速度来表征，因此本文通过研究转移方式系数、网络边权、约束参数与随机扰动、重大扰动的相互关系，得到了项目网络在随机扰动和重大扰动下，维持较优稳定性及较坏稳定性时的网络参数取值；而在扰动控制上，本文研究了风险免疫和扰动的相互关系，仿真结果表明免疫策略可以有效隔离扰动，但免疫值的大小对于扰动隔离的影响并不明显。这些结论对于在网络结构优化和扰动控制两个方面治理网络稳定性提供了一定的理论支持。

关键词:稳定性，复杂网络，大型复杂项目, 治理

Abstract:

The stability of large complex projects is the key factor to project success, and it is affected both by the stakeholders’ network disturbances and the risk defensive strategies, and therefore, one can improve the project stability from the aspects of project’s network structure optimization and network disturbance control. Due to the fact that the project stability is highly related to the traffic load, edge costs and constraints of the large complex project networks, and can also be characterized by the network traffic load losses, we investigated the interactions of the network transfer coefficients, edge costs and constraints to the random and the serious network disturbances, and obtained the key network parameters to maintain the optimal and worst project stabilities. While when studying the relationships between network risk defensive strategies and disturbances, our simulation results showed that risk defensive strategies can isolate the disturbances effectively, yet the influences of the defensive values to disturbance isolation is not obvious. This study provides theoretical supports to the idea of improving network stability by using network structure optimization and network disturbance control.

Key words:stability, complex network, large complex projects, government