辽宁省行业隐含碳排放及碳减排潜力分析 ——基于产业结构分析视角

Measuring Embodied Carbon Emission and Analyzing Emission Reduction Potential for Industries of Liaoning Province. ——Based on The Perspective of Industrial Structure

摘要:

改革开放以来我国经济飞速发展，各项建设与工业化获得巨大成就。与此同时，不断恶化的资源枯竭、环境污染以及温室效应也对我国目前的产业结构调整提出了迫切要求。作为重化工业大省，辽宁省是 “十三五” 规划纲要节能减排的重点省份之一。为了从微观行业层面剖析产业结构与碳排放之间的关系，本文采用投入产出生命周期评价方法对辽宁省各行业的直接和隐含碳排放进行估算，并通过构建碳减排潜力模型评价产业结构变化所引起碳减排效应。结果表明辽宁省直接隐含碳排放量和碳减排潜力较大的行业集中在重化工业和能源产业，因此这些行业是碳减排的重点。基于研究结果建议辽宁省除了提高碳减排技术水平、优化能源结构外，还重点需要调整产业结构，使高耗能、重化工业在产业结构中所占的比重合理化。

Abstract:

Since reform and opening up, China has sustained a rapid economic growth. But the attendant resource depletion and environmental pollution brought forward imperative desire for upgrading industrial structure. Liaoning Province, an important center of mineral and base of heavy industry of China, faced even more resource and environmental problems and hence is one of the main provinces targeted at energy saving and emission reduction during the 13th Five-year program In order to analyze the link between industrial structure and carbon emission from the micro level, first this paper, used EIO-LCA, estimated carbon emissions and embodied carbon emissions of Liaoning’s industries. Then the industrial structure’s role in and impact on carbon emission reduction are analyzed and evaluated by building potential mode of carbon emission reduction. The results show that:The heavy chemical industry and the energy industry have the greatest potential for carbon emission reduction. Finally, based on the results of the study, corresponding suggestions such as upgrading energy structure and the technology of carbon reduction, especially optimizing economic structure are proposed.