基于演化博弈的新兴产业进入策略选择及模型研究

Research and Modeling of Evolutionary Game Based Selection of Entry Strategies for Emerging Industries

摘要:

企业进入新兴产业存在巨大的风险,进入策略的选择对于关注新兴产业的潜在进入企业至关重要,本文在有限理性的前提下,对潜在进入企业以及在位企业的策略进行了分析,运用演化博弈理论对在位企业以及潜在进入企业的策略选择互动机制进行研究,分析了产业阻入程度以及政府政策对潜在进入企业和在位企业的策略选择的影响。通过对模型进行研究分析发现,降低产业进入成本以及阻入程度,加大新技术开发的支持力度,制定相关支持性政策等对企业进入新兴产业有正向影响,从而能够推动新兴产业的发展。

Abstract:

In view of huge risk of existing in the emerging industries, the selection of entry strategies is of great importance for the enterprises paying attention to entering into the emerging industries potentially. On the premise of limited rationality, this paper analyses the strategies of potential entrants and incumbent firms, and use the evolutionary game theory to research the interactive mechanism of strategy selection between the incumbent firms and the potential entry firms. This paper also analyses the impacts of such factors as the degree of resistance into the emerging industries and new policies on strategy selection. The results show that the reduction of entry cost, the reduction of the degree of resistance into the emerging industries, the increase of support for new technology development and the establishment of supportive policies are favorable for enterprises to enter emerging industries, thus promoting the development of emerging industries.