现代信息技术服务业嵌入与制造业转型升级研究——基于VAR模型分析

Research on the Embedding of Modern Information Technology Service Industry and the Transformation and Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry ---based on VAR Model

摘要:

目前制造业国际分工格局正在发生深刻的变化，美国、德国等工业强国纷纷制定以智能制造为核心的再工业化战略以重振制造业。与此同时，我国制造业正面临高端制造向发达国家回流以及中低端制造向东南亚国家转移的“双向挤压”。在此严峻的形势下，加快我国制造业转型升级，提升全球竞争力已迫在眉睫。文章以我国现代信息技术服务业和制造业为内生变量，选取2002--2015年时间序列数据，建立一阶差分VAR模型，运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等工具深入分析现代信息技术服务业与制造业之间的融合促进作用。结果表明：现代信息技术服务业业与制造业之间存在长期均衡关系，二者之间已经出现了一定程度的融合互动发展，并且现代信息技术服务业已经成为制造业转型升级的助推器。

Abstract:

Currently the manufacturing international division of labor pattern is undergoing profound changes.The United States, Germany and other industrial powers have established industrialization strategy which choose intelligent manufacturing as the core to revive manufacturing industry. At the same time, Chinese manufacturing industry is facing the "two-way extrusion": high-end manufacturing going back to developed countries and low-end manufacturing transferring to southeast Asian countries. Under the severe situation, speeding up the transformation and upgrading and promoting global competitiveness of our country’s manufacturing is imminent. This article selects modern information technology services industry and manufacturing industry in China as endogenous variables, establishing a VAR model based on the series data from 2002-2015, using co-integration test and impulse response function and variance decomposition method to deeply analyze the integration promotion between the two industries. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between modern information technology service industry and manufacturing industry, and a certain degree of interaction exists between the two, and modern information technology service industry has become the upgrading booster of manufacturing industry’s transformation.