基于LEAP模型的北京公交集团碳减排政策情景研究

Study on the Carbon-reduction Policy Scenarios in Beijing Bus Company Based on the LEAP Model

摘要:

在对客运交通碳减排技术政策研究的基础上，构建了北京市客运交通碳减排核算模型。采用带有情景分析的核算模型分析了车辆和燃料改善的技术政策措施对于北京市客运交通碳减排的影响效果。研究结果表明，更新新能源和清洁能源车辆、执行更加严格的燃油消耗限值标准这两种技术政策均能在一定程度上降低CO2排放量。虽然提高燃油消耗限值标准政策在短期具有很好的减排效果，但长期来看不如更新新能源和清洁能源车辆减排作用明显。最后，对北京公交集团实现有效的碳减排提出应对策略和建议。

关键词:碳减排;LEAP模型;北京公交集团;情景分析

Abstract:

Based on the passenger traffic carbon emission reduction technology policy research, this paper constructs the Beijing city passenger transport carbon emissions accounting model. The accounting model with scenario analysis analyzed the carbon reduction effects of vehicle and fuel improvement technical policies and measures for passenger transport in Beijing. The results show that updating the new energy and clean energy vehicles, implementation of more stringent fuel consumption limits standard can reduce CO2 emissions in a certain extent. While improving fuel consumption limits standard policy in a short period with good reduction effect, but in the long run that the former’s reduction effect is better. Finally, we put forward countermeasures for the effective carbon reduction of Beijing bus group.

Key words:carbon emissions reduction; LEAP model; Beijing bus company; scenario analysis