基于系统动力学的移动电子商务产业演化研究

Study on Mobile E-Commerce Industrial Evolution Based on System Dynamics

摘要:

近年来我国移动电子商务产业规模迅速扩大。从系统的角度出发，移动电子商务产业可看作由经济、政策、移动技术和产业链4个相互关联的子系统构成。根据各子系统的内在因果关系，运用Vensim软件构建移动电子商务产业的系统动力学模型；在检验模型有效性的基础上，对我国移动电子商务产业的演化趋势进行仿真，并在政策和技术的不同投入力度场景下分析系统行为的变化。仿真结果表明，在适度的政策引导下，协同移动技术和产业链的发展能有效促进我国移动电子商务产业健康、可持续发展。

Abstract:

With the rapid development of Internet and mobile communication technologies and the populace of intelligent terminals, the mobile e-commerce industry has raised quickly and gradually became a new growth point for our country’s economy. We analyzed inner logical relationship of the mobile e-commerce industrial, which was divided into four correlative systems, economy, policies, mobile technologies and industrial chain with system dynamics. At the same time, the system dynamical model of mobile e-commerce industrial was structured with Vensim software. We simulated China’s future mobile e-commerce industrial development based on testing model availability, and policy experiments of policy and technology investment were conducted. The simulation result shows that, under appropriate policy guidance, coordinating mobile technology and industrial chain will effectively promote the healthy and sustainable development of mobile e-commerce industry.