本文为完善孵化器发展链条，促进大众创业，万众创新,提出构建基于累积前景理论的科技企业孵化器运营前景模型。首先，结合实际决策，设置孵化器的运营评估指标及问题描述，其次，构建基于累积前景理论的运营前景评估模型，设置评估值、预期值和时间三个参照点，求解各地区在各属性状态下的累积前景值，在充分考虑孵化器在运营时间段内的属性权重和时间权重基础上，分别运用组合赋权和广义优序数法构建指标权重和时间阶段权重,计算出综合累积前景值；最后，依次对各个地区孵化器的前景进行排序和择优。本文从动态角度评估了各个地区科技企业孵化器的运营前景，为孵化器运营前景的评估增添了一种新的动态决策方法，具有实际应用价值。

We put forward to build science and technology business incubator operating prospects model based on the cumulative prospect, which aims to improve the incubator development chain, promote the public entrepreneurship and innovation. First, setting three reference points about the evaluation value, expected value and time and combined with the actual decision-making, then, using the value function and the weight function of the cumulative foreground theory to solve the cumulative value of each region in each state. Secondly, using the combination weight and the generalized optimal sequence method respectively based on considering the weight of the index and time in the operation period, accumulating the attribute weighting and get the comprehensive cumulative foreground value of each scheme. Finally, the prospects for each regional incubator are sorted and preferred. We quantified the foreground value of the incubator and evaluated the operational prospect of the incubator in each region from the dynamic view, which add a new dynamic decision-making method for the evaluation of the incubator's operating prospects. It has practical application value.

F276.44

国家自然科学基金（No.71301100）