产业结构调整引发的水资源消耗与水环境效应检验：来自广东省的实证

Dynamic Effect between Industrial Structure Adjustment and Water Resources Consumption and Water Environment in Guangdong Province

摘要:

在产业转型关键期进一步明确产业结构调整对水资源消耗与水环境的影响至关重要。以广东省为例,利用系统动力学构建模拟产业结构、水资源消耗与水环境及影响要素关系的动态仿真模型,并在验证模型一致性的基础上,分别选取水资源消耗量与可用水资源量、化学需氧存量与氨氮存量作为水资源消耗与水环境的评价指标,对产业结构调整所可能引发的水资源消耗与水环境效应进行动态检验。结果表明,对单一产业重点调整时,第二产业易造成可用水资源量偏低,而重点调整第一产业与第三产业则分别有助于降低化学需氧与氨氮存量；对三次产业中两类产业进行重点调整时,第一产业与第三产业在控制水资源消耗、化学需氧存量、提高经济效益方面具有较大优势；而三次产业综合提升时,会加剧水资源消耗,但对水环境质量与经济效益提升最为显著。

Abstract:

Dynamic effect between industrial structure adjustment and water resources consumption and water environment to be analyzed is important for water resource management. So Guangdong province was as the research object, and dynamic simulation model including industrial structure, water resources consumption, water environment and their influencing factors was constructed. While water resources consumption and available water resources were selected as evaluation indexes for water consumption, and the stocks of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen were selected as evaluation indexes for water environment, and then the dynamic response of industrial structure adjustment to water resources consumption and water environment. Results showed that when a single industry was adjusted, available water resources would be on the low side by secondary industry adjustment, and chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen would be reduced by primary industry and tertiary industry. But when two kinds of industry was adjusted, water consumption and chemical oxygen demand could be controlled, and economic benefit would be improved by primary industry and tertiary industry. Moreover, water consumption would be increased but water environmental quality and economic benefit would be significantly improved when thrice industries were promoted.