抓住技术革命机会窗口的理论、历史与对策研究

Research on the Theory，History and Countermeasures of Grasping the Windows of Opportunity of Technological Revolutions

摘要:

演化经济学和经济史的研究表明，自工业革命以来全球共经历了五次技术革命。每次技术革命的发展周期都会对发展中国家实施技术追赶、提升国家经济实力提供两种机会窗口。美国和德国利用第三次技术革命的机会窗口，通过优先发展新兴产业实现了跻身世界经济强国的行列。我国经济发展所取得的巨大成就得益于抓住了第五次技术革命的机会窗口。为了实现进入创新型国家前列和成为世界科技强国的战略目标，我国必须抓住第六次技术革命开启的机会窗口，深入实施创新驱动发展战略，开辟具有中国特色的自主创新之路。

Abstract:

Evolutionary economics and economic history studies have shown that since the industrial revolution, the world has experienced a total of five technological revolutions. The life cycle of each technological revolution will provide two windows of opportunity for developing countries to pursue technology catching-up, to enhance the national economic strength. The United States and Germany use the window of opportunity of the third technological revolution to achieve the ranks of the world's economic power through the active development of emerging industries. The great achievements of our country's economic development have benefited from seizing the window of opportunity of the fifth technological revolution. In order to realize the strategic goal of entering the forefront of the innovation-oriented countries and becoming the world's strong science and technology country, China must seize the window of opportunity of the sixth technological revolution and carry out the innovation-driven development strategy and open up the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics.