高耗能企业节能减排协同效应演变及预测研究

On the energy saving and emission reduction synergistic effect progress of an energy-intensive enterprise

摘要:

高耗能企业节能与减排密切相关,应深入研究其节能减排进程中的协同效应演变和发展趋势,以优化节能减排目标管理。构建了高耗能企业节能减排协同效应评价模型、基本指标体系、系统动力学模型以及指标体系预测方程。以宝钢公司为例,实证研究了企业节能减排协同效应演变进程及趋势。结果表明宝钢“十一五”和“十二五”期间,节能减排协同效应持续提高,其中,减排效应比节能效应更为显著；通过预测“十三五”节能减排协同效应演变趋势和模拟仿真,发现薄弱环节,得出了优化方案及主要影响因素以供参考。

Abstract:

Energy saving is closely related to emission reduction in a energy intensive enterprise. The synergistic effect evolution and trends in the progress of energy conservation and emission reduction should be studied in order to optimize the target management. The evaluation model, index system, system dynamics model and index system prediction equation of energy saving and emission reduction for an energy intensive enterprise were constructed. Taking Bao steel as an example, this paper analyzed the synergistic effect evolution or progress of energy saving and emission reduction. The result shows that, it was rising continually during the 11th and 12th Five-Years in Bao steel, and emission reduction effect was greater than the energy saving effect. this paper predicted the trend of synergistic effect of energy saving and emission reduction in the 13th Five - Year Plan of Bao steel, the weak was found. The optimization scheme was obtained and main factors through simulation.