秸秆综合利用对节能减排的贡献效应研究

The Contribution Rate and Effect ofSComprehensiveStraw Utilization to Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

摘要:

我国秸秆综合利用率低,且存在露天焚烧情况,造成大气污染。本文详细分析国内外秸秆综合利用现状,并研究我国秸秆利用的相关政策。利用EEMD和BPNN预测2020年我国秸秆产量,并分析秸秆综合利用率为：80%,85%和90% 三种情景下,综合利用秸秆对节能减排的贡献情况。结果表明：在基线情景下,当秸秆综合利用率达到80%,可节约3000万吨煤,并减少6.15亿吨 CO2排放。由此证明,提高秸秆综合利用对节能减排具有重要意义。

Abstract:

The comprehensive straw utilization and straw burning is not optimistic in China, causing air pollution.SThis paper teased the present situation of comprehensive straw utilization at home and abroad, and analyzed the straw related policies in China. This paper used EEMD and BPNN to forecast straw yield in 2020 in China and analyzed the contribution of comprehensive straw utilization to energy conservation and emission reduction in 2020 under three scenarios (the rate of comprehensive straw utilization is: 80%,90%,95%). The results showed that in baseline scenarios, the rate of comprehensive straw utilization is 80%, it can save30 million tons of coal, at the same time, reduce 615 million tons CO2 emissions. Therefore, encouraging the comprehensive straw utilization has important significance for energy conservation and emission reduction in China.