安全预测学：安全科学中势在必建的分支学科

Safety Forecasting Science: A Branch of Safety Science Is in Urgent Need to Be Established

摘要:

为促进安全预测学研究与发展,进而提升安全预测的重要性、可靠性与有效性,针对目前学界在理论层面对安全预测研究极其缺乏的问题,立足于学科建设高度,进行安全预测学的建立研究。首先,根据预测的定义,基于系统视角,给出安全预测的定义,并分析其内涵。其次,提出安全预测学的定义,并深入剖析其内涵及创立安全预测学的依据。最后,系统探讨安全预测学的学科性质、研究内容、学科分类与学科基础4个学科基本问题。结果表明,安全预测的本质是一种安全科学研究与实践的方法论；安全预测学是专门研究与探讨系统未来的安全状态发展变化规律的一门新兴综合交叉学科,是安全科学中势在必建的分支学科。

关键词:预测学;安全科学;安全预测;安全预测学;依据;学科基本问题

Abstract:

In order to promote the research and development of safety forecasting science, and this in turn enhances the importance, reliability and validity of safety forecasting, aiming at a problem of the great lack of theoretical research on safety forecasting in the current academic, the establishment of safety forecasting science was researched based on the discipline construction. First of all, from the systematic perspective, the definition of safety forecasting was proposed based on the definitions of forecasting, and its connotation was explined. And then, the definition of safety forecasting science was put forward, and its connotation and establishment evidence were analyzed thoroughly. Finally, four basic issues in safety forecasting science (including discipline features, research content, discipline classification and discipline foundation) were systematically discussed. The results show that the essence of safety forecasting is kind of methodology of the research and practice of safety science. Meanwhile, safety forecasting science is a new interdisciplinary nterdiscipline which specialized in studying the developmental and variable rules of future safety state of system, and it is a branch of safety science is in urgent need to be established.

Key words:forecasting science; safety science; safety forecasting; safety forecasting science; evidence; discipline basic issues