基于广义迪氏指数分解法的京津冀地区碳排放因素分解

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei ------A Study Based on Generalized Divisia Index Method

摘要:

本文以京津冀地区为研究对象，利用广义迪氏指数分解法对2006-2015年的碳排放相关数据进行分析，讨论其主要影响因素并量化其贡献率。研究结果表明：（1）经济发展对京津冀地区碳排放的促进作用最大，但是“十二五”期间，碳排放量及GRP逐年贡献率开始下降，这说明京津冀地区经济增长的同时二氧化碳排放量在逐渐降低。（2）分解因素中能源消耗强度、能源消耗碳强度对碳排放呈微弱负作用，而产出碳强度对碳排放的呈明显抑制作用且抑制作用超过了其他所有抑制因素的总和，这说明低碳技术进步是节能减排的决定性因素。（3）人口增长对碳排放起到拉动作用，而由于人口城镇化比率以及消费习惯的不同，人均碳排放的分解结果在三个地区出现差异，北京为抑制作用而天津和河北呈现拉动作用。

Abstract:

In this paper, the generalized divisia index method is used to decompose the carbon emission into the weighted contribution from 8 kinds of the driving factors during the period 2006 to 2015 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. The conclusions are that：（1）the economic scale effect plays a dominant role in increases in China’s carbon emission, but during the “12th Five-Year” period, carbon emissions and GRP contributions to the rate of carbon emission began to decline, which present that the economic growth in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province, while carbon dioxide emissions are gradually reduced;（2）in the decomposition factors, energy consumption intensity and energy consumption carbon intensity have a weak negative effect on carbon emission, but the output carbon intensity has the biggest inhibiting effect on carbon emission, and the inhibition effect exceeds the total of all other inhibiting factors, which shows that low-carbon technological progress is the decisive factor of energy saving and emission reduction; （3）population growth plays a stimulating role in the carbon emission, and as a result of the population urbanization ratio and consumption habits, the decomposition of per capita carbon emissions shows in different results in three regions, while Beijing is a restraining factor, while Tianjin and Hebei are pulling forces.