基于DEMATEL和ANP的海外铁路项目风险评估模型

Risk Assessment Model of Overseas Railway Projects Based on DEMATEL and ANP

摘要:

中国铁路建造技术以及机车车辆装备制造技术已经处于世界领先水平。然而由于对风险管理的重视程度不够,走出国门的铁路项目并不是一帆风顺。风险管理的要旨在于对关键风险的把控，如何识别关键风险因素成为“关键中的关键”。基于铁路项目跨度大、周期长、风险因素相互作用明显的特点，本文通过把DEMATEL和ANP方法相结合，建立了用于海外铁路项目风险评估模型，并通过实证研究对中国海外铁路风险进行评估。研究结果发现，市场风险的重要程度最高，自然风险的重要程度最低。

Abstract:

Nowadays whether it is railway construction technology and locomotive equipment manufacturing technology, China is in the world leading level. However, due to the lack of emphasis on risk management, the overseas railway projects undertaken by Chinese companies are not always successful. The key to risk management is to focus on key risks. Therefore, how to identify key risk factors is the most important thing. Given the characteristics of overseas railway projects such as crossing multiple regions, long project life cycle and the intense interaction among different risk factors. By combining the DEMATEL and ANP methods, a risk assessment model was established and then we use the model to assess the risk of China's overseas railways projects. The results show that the market risk gets the highest degree of importance and the natural risk gets the lowest degree of importance.