长三角地区环境库兹涅茨曲线探讨

Discussion on Environmental Kuznets Curve Based in Yangtze River Delta

摘要:

CO₂减排是绿色发展当然要求。走“绿色发展”是经济与环境友好的必由之路。本文首先探讨长三角的江苏、浙江和上海CO₂排放与经济增长的环境库兹涅茨曲线,发现上海人均CO₂和人均GDP、江苏CO₂和人均GDP、浙江CO₂和GDP存在“∩”型的EKC,根据各自因变量时间序列拟合生长模型,经测算,2012年上海即已出现拐点,2014年浙江出现拐点,江苏于2016年出现拐点。在LMDI分解模型中引入碳源因子,将CO₂排放的驱动因素分为排放结构因子、碳源因子、强度因子、社会富裕因子和人口因子,使用三期移动平均法调整原始数据后进行效应计算,得到社会富裕因子是长三角CO₂排放增加的最主要助推器,人口因子次之。强度因子是长三角CO₂排放的最大抑制性因子,碳源因子是长三角CO₂排放的次要抑制性因子。排放结构因子对CO₂排放增量作用有限的结论,最后提出使用多元结构能源,调整能源消费方向,鼓励消费低CO₂排放能源,加重高CO₂排放能源使用成本,重视节能减排教育和宣传,减缓社会财富、人口因子等发展权引致的CO₂必要性排放等建议,可作为经济发达地区把握CO₂排放现状、制定践行国家和区域CO₂减排政策等参考。

Abstract:

It is necessary for the green development to reduce the CO2 emission. Green development is the only way to friendliness between economic and environment. It discusses Environmental Kuznets Curves between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in Yangtze River delta. It found out that there are “∩”trends between CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita in Shanghai, between CO2 emission and GDP per capita in Jiangsu province, between CO2 emission and GDP in Zhejiang province. According to the growth model which is based on the time sequence of each dependent variable, the results show that there was an inflection point in Shanghai in 2012, there was an inflection point in Zhejiang province in 2014 and there was an inflection point in Jiangsu province in 2016. The carbon source factor was introduced into the LMDI decomposition model. The driving factors of CO2 emissions are comprised of the emission structure factor, the carbon source factor, the energy intensity factor, the social rich factor and the population factor. The effect is calculated using the three-stage moving average method to adjust the original data. The result shows that the social rich factor provides the greatest contribution to CO2 incremental emissions in the Yangtze River delta, the population factor is next. The energy intensity factor is the biggest contribution to CO2 decrement emissions. The carbon source factor is the secondary inhibitory factor of carbon dioxide emission. The emission structure factor has limited effect on CO2 emission. Finally, it gives some following suggests: it uses multi-structure energy, adjusts energy consumption direction, encourages energy consumption of low CO2 emissions, prevents energy consumption of high CO2 emissions, increases the cost of energy use for high CO2 emissions, emphasizes the education and publicity on energy conservation and emission reduction, and slows the emission of CO2 from social wealth, population factors which belongs to human development rights. It can be used as a reference to figure out the current situation of CO2 emission, and to make policy for national and regional CO2 emission reductions.