产业技术路线图是技术路线图的一般性理论方法在产业领域的具体应用,是通过融合分析技术——产品——市场环节的技术流动对产业技术路径进行判断和预见的方法和过程。既往国内外开展了较多的产业技术路线图理论方法和应用研究,存在的主要问题是不同产业领域技术流动特点的差异较大,当前基于一致性原则的产业技术路线图框架无法有效匹配不同产业的特点,使得产业技术路线图应用中出现方法的不一致性和结果的不可比性,较大程度限制了产业技术路线图的应用和发展。研究架构适合不同产业技术流动特点的技术路线图框架可为对应产业领域技术路线图的发展提供重要的方法基础。本研究综述产业技术路线图一般性方法框架,对应研究医药制造产业的技术流动特点,综合构建医药制造产业技术路线图框架。医药制造产业技术路线图框架由跨度为25-40年、以3-5年为间隔的时间横轴和包括市场需求层、上市产品层、临床试验层和基础研发积累层在内的4层级纵向结构构成。

As the key step to technology foresight, industrial technology roadmap (TRM) serves as the generic adoption of TRM architecture methodology to the industry by the pathway of comprehensive investigation into the technology, product and market. Previous studies focused on the generic theory and the practice of TRM. However, because of the large variation and the flexibility of TRM, the consistency and the comparability of the TRM practices are greatly limited, the construction of TRM specific the industrial areas still needs further studies. Our study reviewed the generic theory and methodology framework of the industrial TRM, and constructed the TRM architecture specific to the pharmaceutical industry based on the technology delivery of the pharmaceutical industry. For the constructed pharmaceutical industry TRM, the horizontal axis is the time dimension with the scale of 25-40 years and the interval of 5 years, and the vertical axis consists four layers, which are R D accumulation, clinical trials (three phases), registered products and market competition.

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国家重点研发计划精准医学研究专项项目“精准医疗伦理、政策法规框架项目” （2017YFC0910100）；中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程协同创新团队项目“医学科技创新评价与卫生服务体系构建研究”（2016-I2M-3-018）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目“中国医学科技发展报告2017”（2016ZX330030）