技术进步、空间竞争与产业区位变化

Technological Progress, Spatial Competition and Location Dynamics:

摘要:

本文构建了融入技术进步的产业区位一般均衡模型,并据此推导出应用现实数据估计并进行情景模拟的实证模型,在此基础上,以西北地区水泥工业为例,模拟技术进步对产业区位的影响,探索经济活动空间格局的塑造机制。研究结果发现,在投入要素成本不变情况下,技术进步驱使企业生产成本降低,从而促进新一轮空间竞争。在长期,产业集聚会进一步增强,并聚集到更小的地区范围。原先市场规模大、产业基础好的地区仍为主要集聚地区,其他地区则更会被边缘化。

Abstract:

This paper construct a general equilibrium model of industrial location, though which we derive an empirical model. By taking cement industry in Northwest China as the case, we estimate the model by adopting real statistics, and then the key parameter had been achieved. After that, we are able to simulate the impact of technological progress on location dynamics. It indicates that, technological progress will decreases operating cost, and it turns to be profitable for firms to expand sale size as well as production. In the perspective of regions, technological progress would induce server spatial competition across regions. In long term, technological progress would result in higher spatial concentration of industry. Regions with convenient market access would still be the destinations where lots of firms located, while, other regions would have to be more peripheral, some regions located next to hot pot regions would lost lots of firms which mainly would relocate to core regions. This paper indicates that technological progress inevitably has significant impact on industrial location. It implies the importance of investigation on intuition of economics geography based on technological progress perspective.