基于哈肯模型的生态产业链演化研究

Research on Evolution of Eco Industrial Chain based on the Haken Model

摘要:

生态产业链被认为是以资源多级利用实现社会可持续发展的新型发展模式。了解和掌握生态产业链的演化机制,对于生态产业链的发展和自我完善具有重要作用。本文基于哈肯模型构建了生态产业链的演化方程,以30个省市为样本对我国2005-2010和2010-2015年两阶段的演化过程进行分析。分析结果表明：废弃物综合利用率是我国生态产业链演化的序参量,决定了系统演化的进程与方向；在演化过程中废弃物综合利用率和能源产出率之间尚未形成协同效应,说明在产业转型中,不应只关注废弃物在数量上的减少,还应该关注废弃物综合利用所带来的经济效益。

Abstract:

Eco industrial chain is considered as a new development model with multi use of resources to bring about sustainable development of society. Understanding and mastering the evolution mechanism of eco industrial chain plays an important role in the development and self-improvement of eco industrial chain. This paper based on the Haken model constructs the evolutionary equation of eco industrial chain to analysis 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 in the two stages’ evolution process of 30 provinces of China. The results show that, comprehensive utilization rate of waste is the key variable in the evolution process of eco industrial chain and determines the process and direction of the eco industrial chain. In the process of evolution, there is no synergy between comprehensive utilization of waste and energy output, it shows that we should not only pay attention to the reduction of quantity of waste in the process of industrial transformation, but also to the economic benefits brought about by the comprehensive utilization of waste.