本文在科学测算江苏省农业碳排放基础上,应用STIRPAT模型研究了江苏省2000-2015年经济发展、技术进步与农业碳排放增长的关系。研究结果显示：2000-2015年江苏省农业碳排放量呈上升趋势,年均增长率为0.13%；城镇化率、农村人口、富裕度、农业产业结构、农业技术人员数量每发生1%的变动分别会引起江苏省农业碳排放1.04%、0.82%、0.23%、0.18%、0.13%的变化,研究表明江苏省经济发展、技术进步对农业碳排放有重大影响。为推动江苏省农业碳减排,必须继续深化农业供给侧结构调整,走绿色低碳农业发展之路；推行低碳农业生产技术改革,降低农业生产能源消耗；加大低碳农业政策扶持力度,确保农业可持续发展。

This paper uses STIRPAT model to study the relationship between economic development, technological progress and agricultural carbon emissions growth in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province showed a downward trend of increase from 2000 to 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 0.13%. Every 1% change in urbanization rate, rural population, affluence, agricultural industrial structure and agricultural technicians Respectively, will cause agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province 1.04%, 0.82%, 0.23%, 0.18% and 0.13% respectively. Research shows that economic development and technological progress have a significant impact on agricultural carbon emissions. In order to promote agricultural carbon emission reduction in Jiangsu Province, it must continue to deepen the structural adjustment of the supply side of agriculture and take the road of green low-carbon agriculture development; implement the reform of low-carbon agricultural production technology and reduce energy consumption in agricultural production; increase the support for low-carbon agricultural policies, ensure sustainable development of agriculture.

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国家自然科学青年基金“应对气候变化的土地利用碳排放增长机理及调控路径研究”(71704081、KJQN201850)；江苏省自然科学基金“减排约束下土地利用碳排放系统模拟及调控体系研究”(BK20150681)；南京农业大学人文社科基金“江苏省农业碳排放效应、机理及调控路径研究”(SKYC2017019)。