信息化对碳强度的降低存在正反两方面的作用，致使信息化对碳强度的真实影响无法仅从理论分析得到。利用中国30个省份2000—2012年的面板数据，在估算省级CO2排放量的基础上构造动态面板数据模型，同时使用工具变量以及动态GMM方法进行参数估计。研究结果表明：信息化能显著降低中国总体碳强度，东部地区信息化对区域碳强度降低的作用大而显著，中西部地区则为小而不显著。为充分利用信息化给中国节能减排带来的有益成果，应进一步提高中国的信息化水平，并重视区域间信息化的均衡发展。

There are positive and negative effects of informatization on carbon intensity reduction, so the real effect of informatization on carbon intensity can not be obtained from theoretical analysis. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2012, this paper constructs a dynamic panel data model based on the estimation of provincial CO2 emissions, uses the tool variables and dynamic GMM methods to estimate the parameters. The results show that: Informatization can significantly reduce the overall carbon intensity of China, informatization in the eastern region plays a significant role in reducing regional carbon intensity, while in the central and western regions, it is small and not significant. In order to make full use of the beneficial achievements of informatization in energy saving and emission reduction, we should further improve the level of informatization in China and attach importance to the balanced development of informatization among regions.

F205

自然科学青年“新型城镇化背景下固定资产投资对能源消费的影响机理研究”(71403207)