北京雾霾治理措施对比分析——基于系统动力学仿真预测

Comparative analysis of haze control measures in Beijing ——Simulation and prediction based on system dynamics

摘要:

北京雾霾越演越烈，雾霾治理刻不容缓。文章指出粗放式的经济发展模式是造成北京雾霾天气的罪魁祸首，不合理的产业结构、科技创新停滞不前、能源的过度消耗及不合理的消费结构、急剧增加的机动车保有量是北京雾霾频发的最直接原因。在厘清北京市经济、能源、雾霾三者耦合机制和发展态势的基础上，通过系统动力学构建北京经济、能源、雾霾耦合作用的雾霾治理系统从而对四大主流雾霾治理措施的治理效果进行动态仿真预测。最后，文章基于仿真预测结果进行对比分析，发现治理北京雾霾当务之急是绿化能源消费结构，其次是控制机动车相对保有量。另一方面，文章从仿真预测结果得到启示，未来对北京雾霾治理的重心需由生产性污染物排放向生活性污染物排放转移。

Abstract:

Beijing haze becoming stronger and stronger, haze governance urgent. The paper points out that extensive economic development model is the main cause of haze weather in Beijing. Irrational industrial structure, stagnation of scientific and technological innovation, excessive consumption of energy and irrational consumption structure, the rapid increase of motor vehicle ownership is the most direct cause of frequent haze in Beijing. Based on the coupling mechanism and development trend of Beijing economy, energy and haze, the dynamic simulation of the four main measures of governance haze governance effect predicted by the system dynamics to establish the haze governance system of Beijing economic, energy, haze interaction. Based on the comparative analysis of the simulation results, it is found that the urgent task of controlling the haze in Beijing is to construct the green energy consumption structure, and secondly to control the relative ownership of the motor vehicles. On the other hand, from the results of the simulation, the paper points out that the focus of the haze governance in Beijing will be transferred from the productive pollutants emission to the living pollutant emission.