长三角能源强度收敛性研究

Research on Convergence of Energy Intensity in Yangtze River Delta

摘要:

我国于2009年宣布,到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%~45%；《能源发展战略行动计划(2014-2020年)》指出,到2020年非化石能源占比要达到15%。这实际要求能源强度应收敛才能达成预期目标。长三角地区是我国重要的经济“增长极”。上海、江苏和浙江的能源强度收敛性研究具有重要现实意义和示范性借鉴意义。本研究首先改变了传统的以区域为主轴的收敛模型,转为以时间轴考察上海、江苏和浙江的能源强度收敛,将收敛模型中的比较基期改为动态的后向移动平均期,修正了收敛模型。实证结果表明,(1)上海、江苏和浙江在长时间尺度呈现出波浪式σ收敛趋势,结合短尺度收敛比较,上海、江苏和浙江的能源强度在时间轴上不具有严格σ收敛；(2)上海市能源强度存在β绝对收敛；(3)在人均GDP、外贸依赖度和产业结构变量控制作用下,江苏省能源强度存在条件收敛；(4)在消费比、外贸依赖度和技术进步变量控制作用下,浙江省能源强度存在条件收敛。得出分区域实施差异化节能减排政策、深度参与碳交易、提高国内消费力度,引导居民低碳消费、提高能源使用效率等启示。

Abstract:

In 2009, China announced that its GDP Per Capita on Carbon Dioxide Emission in 2020 will be 40% ~ 45% lower than in 2005; In 2020,non-fossil energy will account for 15% in total energy consumption according to “Strategic action plan for energy development from 2014 to 2020”. In order to achieve the expected objective, energy intensity to convergence is required. It is an important economic pole in Yangtze River Delta of our country. There are realistic significance and demonstrative significance by research on convergence in Shanghai city, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province. Firstly, it changes the traditional convergence model which is around region as principal axis. It researches the energy intensity convergence in the Shanghai city, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province, which is based on time as principal axis. It has corrected the convergence model in which the dynamic backward moving average period replaces the comparative base period. The empirical results show that：（1）there are wave trend of σ convergence in Shanghai city, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province during the long time scale. Compared with the convergence in short time scale, the energy intensity of Shanghai city, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province is not strictly convergent on the time axis;（2）There is an absolute βconvergence of the energy intensity in Shanghai city; （3）In terms of control variables of GDP per capita, foreign trade dependency and industrial structure, there is an conditional βconvergence of the energy intensity in Jiangsu province.（4）Under the control variable of consumption ratio, foreign trade dependence and technological progress, there is an conditional β convergence of the energy intensity in Zhejiang province. Finally, this paper proposes a proposal to implement differentiated energy conservation and emission reduction policies in different areas, to deeply participate in carbon trading, to improve domestic consumption, to guide residents of lower carbon consumption, and to improve energy efficiency.