政策选择对农户保护性耕作技术采纳行为的动态影响分析

Dynamic Influence of Policy Selection on the Adoption Behavior of Farmers’ Protective Tillage Technology

摘要:

秸秆粉碎还田是保护性耕作的重要方式,对提高农业生产率和减少环境污染具有重要现实意义。农户实施保护性耕作需采纳保护性耕作技术,其采纳过程中政策引导和激励起着重要的作用。运用Agent建模思路和方法,设计农户保护性耕作技术采纳决策模型,通过农户选择人工秸秆焚烧还田作业(传统耕作技术)与自购农机或购买专业服务进行秸秆粉碎还田(保护性耕作技术)的对比,研究政府补贴、管制(惩罚)、农技推广(信息诱导)三种政策对农户保护性耕作技术采纳行为的动态影响。结果发现：以影响耕作成本的价格杠杆调节机制的补贴和惩罚措施都有助于减少农户秸秆焚烧行为,但提高补贴比惩罚对诱导主动积极型农户采纳效果更为明显；三种政策相比,对环境认知程度较低的农户而言,通过成功的信息诱导措施来刺激农户偏好对采纳决策影响具有最佳效果；从政策影响农户选择保护性耕作技术实现方式而言,提高政策刺激强度会促使农户倾向选择购买服务来实施保护性耕作。

Abstract:

Straw crushed into farmland is an important way of conservation tillage, which is of great practical significance to improve agricultural productivity and reduce environmental pollution. Protective tillage technology should be adopted by farmers, and policy guidance and incentive play an important role in the adoption process. This paper uses agent-based modeling ideas and methods to establish adoption decision model to explore dynamic effects of government subsidies, regulation (punishment), agricultural extension (information induction) on farmer adoption behavior by comparison of selection of artificial burnt straw (Traditional Tillage Technology) with that of agri-machinery or services to carry out (Protective Cultivation Technology). Results show that subsidies and punishment of influencing tillage cost price leverage adjustment mechanism will help reduce farmers’ straw burning, but subsidies are more obvious to induce farmers’ adoption than punishment. On farmers with low environmental cognition, promotion policy has the best effect on the adoption decision to stimulate farmers’ preference through successful information induction in comparison with the three policies. From the perspective of policy affecting farmers’ choice of technology, increasing intensity of policy incentives helps farmers prefer to purchase services.