中国高技术制造业创新景气指数研究

A Research on Climate Index of Chinese High-tech Manufacturing Industry Innovation

摘要:

以创新周期理论为研究基础,通过运用主成分分析法,完成了中国高技术制造业创新景气指数构造,以考察中国高技术制造业创新的周期性波动特征。指数结果显示,中国高技术制造业创新景气状态在近二十年里先后经历了剧烈波动期、平稳振动期、趋势向上期共三个长周期,景气值有望在2018年达到历史最高位,从繁荣转向低迷的周期转折点可能在2020年末到来。研究结论为：基于主成分法的高技术制造业创新景气指数能够有效地描述中国高技术制造业创新发展的周期状况和波动态势,并能准确地筛选出R D经费内部支出占主营业务收入比重增速、技术引进经费支出增速等关键指标因素,这能为中国政府适时调整产业扶持政策、优化创新资源供给提供有益参考。

Abstract:

Based on innovation cycle theory, Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation climate index was built by using principal components analysis, in order to make an investigation on the cyclical fluctuation characteristics of Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation. The results show that Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation climate state has experienced three long cycles in the recent twenty years, including vigorous fluctuation period、stationary vibration period and trend-rise period; the climate index would probably reach its highest level by 2018, and the cycle turning point would probably arrive by 2020. As the final conclusion, the climate index could reflect the cyclical status and fluctuation trend of Chinese high-tech manufacturing industry innovation, and point out some critical factors very well, such as the growth of R D internal expenditure accounted for the proportion of the main business income and the growth of technology import expenditure, which would provide beneficial references for Chinese government to adjust industry-supporting policy and configure innovation resources effectively.