基于BP神经网络的突发事件政府应急管理能力评价研究

Research on Evaluation of Government Emergency Management Capability Based on BP Neural Network under Public Crisis

摘要:

推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化在党的十九大报告中再次被强调,而政府应对频发的突发事件的系统化、规范化和法治化管理是推进政府治理能力现代化的重要环节。科学地评价政府的应急管理能力有助于推进政府管理能力,推动国家治理能力现代化发展。本文结合国内外应急管理的评价性研究成果,采用WSR系统方法,系统性地构建了由四个一级指标及其下54个二级指标组成的政府管理能力评价指标体系,并利用BP神经网络算法,消除人为因素的干扰性,建立科学、系统、全面的评价模型对突发事件政府应急管理能力进行综合评价。通过对长沙市政府的应急管理能力进行实际应用,表明该评价方法操作性强,对整体数据的运算性强,能科学、客观、有效地对横向政府间的应急管理能力进行比较分析和综合评价。

Abstract:

Promoting the national governance system and the modernization of governance capacity was emphasized again in the Nineteenth Party Congress report. To cope with frequent emergencies, systematization, standardization and rule of law in government management are important links in promoting the modernization of government governance. The scientific evaluation of the government"s emergency management capability will help promote the government"s management capabilities and the modernization of the country"s governance capabilities. Based on the experience of emergency management evaluation research at home and abroad, this paper uses the physical-business-human-system approach (WSR) to systematically construct the evaluation index system of government management composed of four first-level indicators and 54 second-level indicators. At the same time, this paper uses BP neural network algorithm to eliminate the subjective influence of human factors on the evaluation results and establish a scientific, systematic and comprehensive evaluation model to make a comprehensive evaluation of the emergency management capabilities of emergencies. Through the practical application of the government emergency management ability in Changsha, it shows that the evaluation method has strong operability and strong computing power of the whole data, and can comprehensively evaluate the government emergency management ability scientifically, objectively and effectively.