建立了政府补贴影响下的三代绿色技术扩散模型,用Matlab(2010b)拟合出了不同潜在市场中每代绿色技术扩散的模拟图。分析结果表明,新技术的扩散率高于旧技术,政府补贴提高了每代技术的扩散率与扩散速度,也有利于促进绿色技术的升级扩散。同时,政府补贴一定程度上弥补了不同技术之间的互补性或者创新性的差距。但政府补贴的积极影响只在技术进入市场的前期阶段效果显著,之后影响逐渐减弱。最后,根据所探究出的结论,为绿色技术的供给企业提出了一些建议,以促进每代绿色技术达到最佳的扩散率。

The paper establishes the model of three generations of green technology diffusion under the influence of government subsidy,Matlab(2010b) has been used to simulate the diffusion of each generation of green technologies in different potential markets. The analysis results show that the diffusion rate of new technology is higher than that of the old technology; Government subsidies improve the diffusion rate and diffusion speed of each generation of technology. Government subsidies are also conducive to promoting the upgrading and diffusion of green technologies. At the same time, the existence of government subsidy compensates for the complementarity or innovation gap between different technologies. However, the positive impact of government subsidies is only significant in the early stage of technology entering the market, and then gradually diminishes as the market stage continues to expand. Finally, based on the findings of this paper, some suggestions are put forward for the supply enterprises of green technology to promote the best diffusion rate of each generation of green technologies.

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湖南省自然科学基金项目“企业突破性技术创新扩散机制研究”（2017JJ2322）；湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题“供给侧改革背景下湖南高新区技术创新扩散机制研究”