二维假设抽取法及其在工业隐含碳关联分析中的应用

Two-dimensional HEM and Its Application in Industrial Embodied Carbon Linkage Measurement

摘要:

为深入了解工业隐含碳在区域间和行业之间的碳排放转移，有必要对其隐含碳关联进行测算与分析。本文在假设抽取法的基础上，对传统的单维度碳关联分析模型进行了改进与扩展，构建了多区域多部门双维度碳关联分析模型，并利用该模型分别对重庆市22个工业部门碳排放在全国30个区域22个部门之间的转移进行了测算与分析。研究表明，该模型能够将分析范围从区域或部门单维度扩展到多个独立区域及其下属部门，改善了单维度分析可能出现的碳关联低估问题。将其与本区域和本部门碳转移分析相结合，有助于识别隐含碳减排的潜力行业，为区域减排责任划分和产业协同减排提供依据。

Abstract:

To understand the industrial carbon emissions linkage among regions and sectors, it is important to develop a new method to deal with multi-regional and multi-sector scenario. This study extended the classical hypothetical extraction method (HEM) from one dimension (inter-regional or inter-sector) to two dimensions (multi-regional and multi-sector), and it is used to measure industrial carbon emissions linkage of Chongqing with 30 provinces and 22 industrial sectors. Result shows that the advanced HEM we developed will help to solve the problem of the underestimating carbon linkages in one dimension scenario. Combining with inter-regional and inter-sector carbon linkages analysis, the new HEM helps to identify key sectors with high potential in embodied carbon reduction, to confirm the carbon reduction responsibility, and to promote cooperation among regions and sectors.