中国建筑业碳排放影响因素空间效应分析

Spatial Analysis of Provincial Carbon Emissions in China Construction Industry

摘要:

【】建筑业是我国高耗能产业之一,减少建筑业碳排放对我国实现碳减排目标具有重要意义。本文基于2004-2015年省际面板数据,利用STIRPAT模型建立了地理回归模型,从全局分析建筑业时空分布,考虑时间变化下的空间作用效应,通过能源效率、产业结构等解释变量,在考虑区位空间因素的作用下构建地理加权回归模型。得出结论：能源效率对建筑业碳排放的促进作用在华南部分地区和华东部分地区有所减缓；产业结构对碳排放的影响在时间序列上看逐渐递减,在西北和华北地区改善显著。解释变量对碳排放的影响存在区域差异,应依据各地区资源禀赋制定差异化减排策略。

Abstract:

The construction industry is one of the high energy-consuming industries in China. It is of great significance to reduce the carbon emission in the construction industry to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2015, this paper established the geographical weighted regression model(GWR) by using STIRPAT model. From the perspective of global analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of construction industry, considering the spatial effect of time change, through variables such as energy efficiency and industrial structure, we build a GWR Model under the influence of spatial factors. It concludes that the promoting effect of energy efficiency on construction carbon emissions has slowed down in some areas in southern China and parts of eastern China. The impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions declines in a time series and improves significantly in northwest and north China. There are regional differences in explaining the impact of variables on carbon emissions. Differentiated emission reduction strategies should be formulated based on the regional endowments of natural resources.