技术进步回弹效应的形成路径分析

Analysis of the Forming Path of Technology Progress Rebound Effect

摘要:

基于中国30个省市自治区的面板数据，采用Malmquist指数分解法和两步GMM回归方法，从回弹效应视角分析技术进步影响能源消费的直接和间接效应，并将回弹效应分解为能源价格效应、城市化效应、能源结构效应和产权结构效应。研究发现：广义技术进步对能源消费的影响呈现倒U型关系，狭义技术进步对能源消费的影响呈现正U型关系。技术进步虽然会通过促进能源低碳化减少能源消费，但也会通过加速城市化扩张和加剧市场竞争增加能源需求，产生回弹效应。相比之下，能源价格由于受到政府宏观调控，对回弹效应的影响不显著。

关键词:回弹效应;技术进步;形成路径

Abstract:

Malmquist index and two-step GMM regression are used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of technological progress on energy consumption. From a perspective of rebound effect, panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of China from 2000-2015 is applied. The rebound effect is decomposed into energy price effect, urbanization effect, energy structure effect and property right structure effect. The results show that: The impact of generalized technological progress on energy consumption has an inverted-U shaped relationship, while the impact of generalized technological progress on energy consumption has an inverted-U shaped relationship, while narrow technological progress presents a positive U-shaped relationship. Technological progress will not only save energy by promoting low carbonization of the energy structure, but also increase energy consumption by accelerating urban expansion and marketization of the construction industry. In contrast, due to the government's macro-control of energy prices, the impact on the rebound effect is not significant.

Key words:Rebound effect; technological progress;forming path