基于中心点混合正弦函数的灰色聚类评估：以工程类科技基础研究项目为例

Performance Evaluation of S T Projects of Engineering Type Based on a Novel Grey Clustering Comprehensive Evaluation Model

摘要:

工程类科技项目是科技项目中的重要一类。对其绩效情况进行科学合理的评估也日益显得重要。工程类科技项目可以划分为基础研究项目,应用研究项目,技术开发项目,软科学项目等四种。本文构建了上述四种项目的指标评价体系。接着,本文引入适合于“少数据、贫信息”情形的灰色系统理论,首次提出基于中心点混合正弦可能度函数的灰色聚类评估模型。该灰色聚类评价模型采用较为光滑的正弦可能度函数,克服了原有基于三角可能度函数的部分缺点。以某工程类科技基础研究项目中的某天然气开发关键技术研究项目为例,运用上述新模型,对其绩效情况进行了实证研究,结果表明,该方法切实可行,项目属于中绩效灰类的概率为51.88%。

Abstract:

Engineering science and technology (S&T) project is an important kind of science and technology project. Scientific and reasonable evaluation of the performance of the kind of projects can improve existing policy of S&T funding. Engineering S&T projects can be divided into basic research projects, application research projects, technical development projects, soft science projects. This paper constructs the index evaluation system of the above four kinds of projects. Then grey system theory suitable for less data and poor information is introduced. A grey clustering model based on centre-point mixed sine possibility degree function is first put forward. The model uses a smooth sine possibility degree function to overcome some shortcomings of the previous model based on centre-point mixed triangular whitenisation weight function. Taking the key technology research project of gas development, a basic research project, for example, this paper applies the new model to evaluate its performance. The results indicate that the method is available and it probably belongs to the middle performance grey class with the possibility of 51.88%.