收益预期、成本认知、风险评估与技术选择决策

Earnings Expectation, Cost Perception, Risk Assessment and Decision Making of Technology Selection

摘要:

农户对农业技术的价值感知及采用倾向水平是事关农户技术采用行为的关键内驱力。本文构建了农户技术综合价值感知影响其技术采用倾向的综合测度模型，并利用甘肃省定西市338家农户的基础调研数据进行了验证，结果表明样本农户存在以下特征：①对新农业技术普遍有较高的综合价值感知及采用倾向；②收益风险感知较高而健康风险感知很低，对技术收益不确定性的担忧与对技术潜在安全问题的漠视并存；③预期收益和健康风险感知分别从正向和负向作用于农户的技术综合价值感知；④预期收益和综合价值感知对农户的技术采用倾向有显著的正向作用，成本感知和收益风险感知则对其采用倾向有负向抑制作用。

Abstract:

Farmers' value perception and adoption tendency of agricultural technology is the key driving force related to farmers' technology adoption behavior. This paper constructs a comprehensive measurement model of farmers' technological value perception affecting their technology adoption tendency, and use the survey data of 338 farmers in Dingxi city Gansu province to verify the model. The results show that the sample farmers have the following characteristics: Most has higher comprehensive value perception and adoption tendency to the new agricultural technology; Income risk perception is higher, and health risk perception is very low, and concerns about uncertainty in technology gains and ignorance of potential security issues are both obviously; Expected income and perceived health risk separately play positive and negative role to farmers' technology integrated value perception; Expected return and comprehensive value perception have a significant positive effect on farmers' technology adoption tendency, Cost perception and income risk perception have negative inhibitory effects on their propensity to adopt.