异质面板视角下人力资本与节水潜力的协整关系研究[基金项目：2017年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“双控行动下用水量库兹涅茨曲线预测及空间差异驱动效应研究”（17YJC790194）；国家社会科学基金项目（14BGL097，15BGL128）。 作者联系方式：李军；南京市江宁区佛城西路8号河海大学、手机[phone]；电子邮箱[e-mail]；邮政编码211100。 作者简介：章恒全（1957-），男，安徽绩溪人，博士生导师，教授，研究方向为项目管理、投资管理；李军（1993.12-），男，安徽马鞍山人，硕士研究生，研究方向为资源经济学。]

Cointegration Research of Human Capital and Water-saving Potential from the Heterogeneous Panel Perspective

摘要:

运用面板计量分析方法，研究了中国各区域人力资本与节水潜力之间的关系。实证研究发现大部分地区的人力资本与节水潜力间存在不同程度的Granger因果关系。受教育程度、技术进步等因素对节水潜力的影响，也呈现出明显的地区异质性。此外，部分地区不存在短期关系，说明其人力资本和节水潜力变化只有在基于长期判断时才有价值；人力资本与节水潜力之间的关系不受地区经济发展水平的影响，说明从此视角制定的节水政策具有普适性。

Abstract:

The relationship between human capital and water saving potential in different regions of China is studied by panel data analysis. Empirical research shows that there are different degrees of Granger causality between human capital and water-saving potential in most areas. The influence of education level, technological progress and other factors on water saving potential also shows obvious regional heterogeneity. In addition, there is no short-term relationship in some areas, indicating that the changes in human capital and water saving potential are only valuable only on the basis of long term judgment; the relationship between human capital and water saving potential is not affected by the level of regional economic development, which shows that the water-saving policy formulated from this perspective is universal.