政府干预下技术风险传播机制与控制决策 ——基于系统动力学的数理论证与实证仿真

Research on technical risk transmission mechanism and control decisions under government intervention: Theoretical evidence and empirical simulation based on system dynamics

摘要:

当前我国快速发展的现代技术为推动社会进步作出了巨大贡献，但是可能存在的技术不足也会带来一定的社会风险，并随着企业间技术和产品的输入输出而不断转移使影响范围越来越大，所以政府就有必要进行干预。本文创新性地将复杂网络上的传染病模型引用到技术风险传播中，构建了政府干预下技术风险传播SEIR模型。首先通过数理论证研究模型的平衡点和稳定性，初步得出政府对于技术风险传播的干预机制，然后调查了云南省50家科技类企业并结合系统动力学原理构建STELLA实证仿真模型，分析政府干预对于技术风险传播的影响，给出政府风险管控的最优策略。

Abstract:

In recent years, the rapid development of modern technology in our country has made great contributions to the advancement of society, but the possible technological inadequacies will also bring about certain social risks, and will continue to shift with the input and output of technologies and products among enterprises，making the impact bigger and bigger. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to intervene. This paper innovatively quotes the epidemic model on complex networks to the transmission of technological risks, and constructs the SEIR model of technological risk transmission under government intervention. Firstly, through theoretical proofs, the balance point and stability of the model are studied, and the government’s preliminary intervention mechanism for the transmission of technological risks is initially obtained. Then 50 scientific and technological enterprises in Yunnan Province are investigated and STELLA empirical simulation model is constructed in accordance with the principle of system dynamics. Then the paper analyzes the impact of government intervention on the spread of technology risks, and the optimal strategy for government risk management is given.