高技术产业发展与区域产业结构升级——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

High-tech Industry Development and Regional Industrial Structure Upgrade ——Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要:

本文主要研究高技术产业发展对区域产业结构升级的影响。首先，利用变异系数法测算了2005～2016年我国26个省市自治区高技术产业发展水平。然后，通过构建VEC模型进行分析判断高技术产业发展与区域产业结构升级之间内在关系。最后，在此基础上，建立省际面板数据分析模型，从全国及东、中、西部区域层面进行实证分析高技术产业发展对产业结构升级的影响。研究表明：(1)全国及东部、中部区域的高技术产业发展对产业结构升级具有显著推动作用，而西部地区却呈现显著抑制作用；(2)人力资本对西部区域产业结构升级的效应显著为正，而外商直接投资、城镇化对其呈现抑制作用；(3)技术进步对中部区域产业结构升级抑制作用显著，对东部地区呈现不显著的促进作用。因此，需要不断完善高技术产业发展需求的政策体系；强化高技术产业在区域经济发展中的引领地位；完善高技术产业发展的激励机制和市场化机制；因地制宜实施政策促进高技术产业协同发展，实现产业结构升级。

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the impact of high-tech industry development on the upgrading of regional industrial structure. Firstly, the variation coefficient method is used to measure the development level of high-tech industries in 26 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016. Then, by constructing the VEC model, the internal relationship between the development of high-tech industry and the upgrading of the regional industrial structure is analyzed and judged. Finally, on this basis, an inter-provincial panel data analysis model is established to empirically analyze the impact of high-tech industry development on the upgrading of industrial structure from the national and the eastern, central and western regions. The research shows that: (1) The development of high-tech industries across the country and the eastern and central regions has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure, while the western region shows a significant inhibitory effect; (2) The effect of human capital on the upgrade of the industrial structure in the western region is significant, while foreign direct investment and urbanization show its inhibitory effect; (3) Technological progress has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure in the central region, showing no significant role in the promotion of the eastern region. Therefore, it is necessary to constantly improve the policy system for the development of high-tech industries, strengthen the leading position of high-tech industries in regional economic development, improve the incentive mechanism and market-based mechanism for the development of high-tech industries and implement policies to promote the coordinated development of high-tech industries according to local conditions to realize the upgrading of industrial structure.