分析了当前的新兴产业技术预测研究及实践中,存在的定量方法数据关联性研究不足和即时性不够,以及技术产业化可能性和前景评估环节缺失的问题,提出运用三螺旋理论解决这几个问题的思路。设计出一种基于三螺旋理论的新兴产业技术预测方法：通过解析科技论文、专利和科技舆情三种类型信息之间的关联性,及其在技术预测中的交互作用,运用三螺旋理论来构建技术预测“论文-专利-舆情”三螺旋模型,用于预测新兴产业的未来技术方向；结合新兴产业及技术特征分析,运用原始“大学-产业-政府”三螺旋理论模型进行技术产业化可能性和前景评估,对所预测的新兴产业未来技术方向进行优选。同时,对该方法的可行性进行了分析论证。

This paper analyzed the existing problems in current research and practice of emerging industry technology forecasting, such as lack of correlation studying and instantaneity for the data used in quantitative method, and lack of the work of assessing the technology industrialization possibility and prospects. An ideal was present to solve these problems by using Triple Helix theory, and a new method of emerging industry technology forecasting based on Triple Helix was designed as follows. Firstly, the correlation between the three types of information of scientific papers, patents and public opinion about Sci. Tech. and their interaction in technology forecasting were analyzed. Secondly, Papers-Patents-Opinions technology forecasting triple helix model using Triple Helix theory was established, and the future technology directions of emerging industry was forecasted through it. Finally, according to the characteristics of emerging industry and technology, the technology industrialization possibility and prospects were assessed by using the original University-Industry-Government triple helix theory model, and thus selecting the optimal future technology directions of emerging industry. At the same time, the feasibility of this method was analyzed and demonstrated.

G3

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于信息融合分析的战略性新兴产业技术预测机制研究”（15YJC870022），上海交通大学文理交叉基金一般项目“基于三螺旋理论的新兴产业技术预测方法及实证研究”（17JCYB09）