产业技术选择是城市发展中一项重要的决策内容。传统产业技术选择方法，诸如德尔菲法、层次分析法等，面临着技术分属领域跨度大，颗粒度大小难界定，以及专家主观判断依赖性大的问题。本研究旨在利用知识网络理论，结合文献计量的量化方法，打破传统产业技术选择的局限，帮助城市识别所需的产业技术。本研究以北京的产业技术选择为例，从梳理国家研究机构发布的技术预测结果为起点，筛选与北京城市发展相关度高的产业技术，并结合知识网络理论，量化产业技术在知识网络中的特征参数，并探讨整体网络参数对产业技术选择与政策设计的影响，由此作为城市发展规划中产业选择以及后续产业政策制定的重要参考依据。研究认为，基于知识网络基础的量化方法，在一定程度上解决了现有决策方法偏重定性分析的问题，为城市产业技术选择提供了一种具有科学依据、能够量化评价的分类方法。

Industrial technology selection is an important decision-making content for urban development. Classical industry technology selection methods such as Delphi method and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) are faced with a wide range of technology-related fields, the difficulty in defining the size and the subjective judgment of the experts have a major impact. The purpose of this study is to use the knowledge network theory and the quantitative methods of bibliometric to cover the shortage of traditional industrial technology selection. This study takes Beijing''s industrial technology selection as an example. It starts by sorting out the technical forecast results released by national research institutions, screening industrial technologies that are highly relevant to Beijing''s urban development, and combining the knowledge network theory to quantify industrial technologies. The characteristic parameters in the knowledge network, and the influence of the overall network parameters on industrial technology choices and policy design, are used as an important reference for industrial selection and follow-up industrial policy formulation in urban planning. The study believes that the quantitative method based on the knowledge network basis, to a certain extent, solves the problem of biased and qualitative analysis of the existing decision-making methods, and provides a classification method with scientific basis and quantitative evaluation for urban industrial technology selection.

G304

国家自然科学基金 “关键工程科技前沿与体系的识别与分析”（项目编号：L1724031）；国家自然科学基金青年基金“面向绿色制造的中小企业协同治污响应行为研究”（项目编号：71704165）；北京市科委软科学项目“全国科技创新中心重大产业技术创新愿景分析”（项目编号：Z151100003115049）