基于泰尔指数的粤港澳大湾区碳生产率差异分析

An Analysis on the Difference of Carbon Productivity in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area in China Based on the Method of the Theil Index

摘要:

粤港澳大湾区将建设为世界级城市群，由于我国存在“一国两制”的基本国策，粤港澳大湾区的经济水平和碳排放存在较大差异。本文利用泰尔指数来测度2005—2014年粤港澳大湾区碳生产率的差异，并构建双重差分模型检验“一国两制”制度对碳生产率差异的影响。结果表明：1）2005以来粤地区的碳生产率远远低于港澳地区的碳生产率；2）2005年以来粤港澳大湾区区间碳生产率差异较小，区内碳生产率差异较大，且大湾区碳生产率总差异虽然呈下降趋势，但仍然较大；3）粤港澳大湾区碳生产率的总差异主要来自区域内差异，而区域内差异主要是由港澳地区差异所引起，且港澳地区的碳生产率差异对总差异的贡献率在逐年增大；4)“一国两制”对粤港澳大湾区的碳生产率具有显著正向影响。在此基础上，提出促进粤港澳大湾区低碳发展的政策建议。

Abstract:

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of China will be built into a world-class city group. Because of the basic national policy of "one country, two systems", the economic level and carbon emission of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area have great differences. Taking the 2005—2014 panel data of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area, we use the Theil index, to measure the Bay Area-productivity differences and build a Difference-in- Differences model and a fixed effect model to analyze "one country, two systems" affecting the carbon productivity. The results are as follows: 1) since 2005, the carbon productivity in Guangdong region is far below the carbon productivity in Hong Kong and Macao region; 2) the interval carbon productivity difference is small, the regional carbon productivity differences is big, the total difference of carbon productivity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao has declined since 2005, but it is still larger; 3)The total difference of carbon productivity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao mainly comes from the interval difference, and the interval difference is mainly caused by the differences between Hong Kong and Macao, and the contribution rate of Hong Kong and Macao''s carbon productivity difference to the total difference is increasing year by year; 4) “one country, two systems” has significant positive effect on the carbon productivity. On this basis, we put forward proposals to promote low-carbon development in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area.