考虑省际贸易的山西省CO2排放影响因素再分解

Re-decomposition of Factors Affecting Shanxi’s CO2 Emissions Considering Interprovincial trade

摘要:

山西省是全国年CO2排放量最多的省份,多角度探究、识别影响其CO2排放变化的主要因素,并针对性进行减排政策设计,是山西省实现绿色低碳发展的关键所在,对全国顺利完成减排目标也具有重要意义。本文在已有山西省碳排放影响因素分解研究基础上,基于山西省1987-2012年六张投入产出表数据,通过构建包含省际贸易因素的IO-SDA模型,对山西省CO2排放总量及CO2完全排放强度的影响因素进行了再分解,从省域整体及分行业角度,分时间段讨论了影响山西省CO2排放增长的各种直接效应与间接效应。研究发现：消费扩张效应、投资扩张效应、省际调出扩张效应等经济规模扩张因素为山西省CO2排放的主要促增因素,省际调出扩张效应影响最大,这证实了省际贸易因素在山西省这类能源输出型省份CO2排放格局中发挥着不容忽视的作用；直接能耗强度效应为关键促降因素；能源结构效应、进口替代效应、省际调入替代效应对CO2排放影响不明显；山西省七大行业中,除农林牧渔业的CO2排放出现下降,重工业、建筑业等六大行业均拉动山西省CO2排放持续增长,不同时间段内山西省各行业主要促增、促降因素及其影响程度存在明显差异；山西省各行业的CO2完全排放强度整体上较高,重工业的CO2完全排放强度最高,能源结构效应、直接能耗强度效应为各行业CO2完全排放强度降低的关键拉动因素,直接能耗强度效应的贡献值最大,投入产出结构效应的影响存在不确定性。本文据此提出了培育新型优势贸易产品,优化调出产品结构和能源结构,平衡消费、投资和贸易调出结构,塑造节能减排新模式等政策建议。

Abstract:

As the province with the largest annual CO2 emissions in China, exploring and identifying the main influencing factors of Shanxi’s CO2 emissions changes from multiple perspectives and designing emission reduction policy specifically are the key to achieve the target of green and low-carbon development in Shanxi, and are also important for the country to complete its emission reduction targets successfully. On the basis of existing decomposition analysis on carbon emission factors in Shanxi, this paper re-decomposes the influencing factors of CO2 emissions and the CO2 full emissions intensity, then discusses various direct and indirect effects of CO2 emission growth in different time periods from the perspective of the overall province and sub-industry, by constructing the IO-SDA model using the six input-output tables from 1987 to 2012. The study finds that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption, investment, and interprovincial outflow is the main promoting factor of CO2 emissions, and the interprovincial outflow expansion effect is the most which confirms that the interprovincial trade factors play an important role in the CO2 emission pattern of energy-exporting provinces like Shanxi. The direct energy intensity effect is the key reducing factor. Energy structure effect, import substitution effect, and interprovincial inflow substitution effect have no obvious impact on CO2 emissions. Among the seven major industries in Shanxi Province, CO2 emissions from agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have declined, and other six industries including heavy industry and construction industry have driven the continuous growth of CO2 emissions. In the different periods, there are obvious differences in the factors promoting and reducing CO2 emissions and the impact in various industries. The CO2 full emissions intensity of various industries is overall higher, and the heavy industry is the highest. The energy structure effect and the direct energy intensity effect are the key reducing factors, and the direct energy intensity effect has the largest contribution value. The impact of input-output structural effects is uncertain. Accordingly, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as cultivating new and advantageous trade products, optimizing interprovincial transferred product structure and energy structure, balancing consumption, investment and trade transfer structures, and creating new models for energy saving and emission reduction.