三方视角下PPP项目绩效的系统动力学建模与分析

System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of PPP Project Performance from Three-Party Perspective

摘要:

PPP项目绩效水平低下是困扰PPP项目推广应用的主要问题。为了提高PPP项目的绩效水平，从三方的角度，引入系统动力学的方法，分析PPP项目融资绩效的主要影响因素，并设计了四种方案。仿真结果表明政府方的影响因素对PPP项目绩效的影响最大，尤其是政府补贴和政府的优惠政策的影响；其次为社会公众的特许价格和项目的服务质量水平因素对PPP项目的绩效影响；再者是社会资本的合理的融资结构和运营管理水平因素对PPP绩效的影响。最后在综合考虑PPP项目影响因素时，应以此虑政府方、社会公众、社会资本等核心利益方的影响，并从三方的视角提出了提高PPP项目绩效的合理的建议。

Abstract:

The low performance level of PPP projects is the main problem that plagues the promotion and application of PPP projects. In order to improve the performance level of PPP projects, the system dynamics method was introduced to analyze the main influencing factors of PPP project financing performance from the perspective of the three parties, and four schemes were designed. The simulation results show that the influence factors of the government have the greatest impact on the performance of PPP projects, especially the impact of government subsidies and government preferential policies. Secondly, they are the impact of the public's license price and the service quality level of the project on the performance of PPP projects; Furthermore, they are the impact of reasonable financing structure and operational management level of social capital on PPP performance. Finally, when considering the influencing factors of PPP projects, we should consider the influence of the core stakeholders such as the government, the public, and social capital, and propose reasonable suggestions for improving the performance of PPP projects from the perspective of the three parties.