基于SEIR模型的高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略

Promotion Strategy of High-carbon Industry's Low-carbon Transformation Power Based on SEIR Model

摘要:

针对高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略问题，借用传染病模型的分析思路，基于SEIR模型构建了的高碳产业低碳技术扩散模型，在此基础上采用anylogic系统动力学分析软件构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散的系统动力学模型，并进行系统仿真。仿真结果显示，随着参数的变化，高碳产业低碳技术扩散平衡点和活跃程度也会发生变化，当高碳产业低碳技术扩散基本再生数大于1时，一旦有新的低碳技术扩散源，低碳技术将在企业之间不断扩散，并最终进入某一个平衡状态；当基本再生数小于1时，无论刚开始有多少企业进行低碳技术传播，系统最终将进入无低碳技术扩散的平衡状态。根据仿真结果有针对性的提出四条对策：（1）多渠道创造低碳技术扩散源；（2）多层次提升低碳技术转移意愿；（3）多方法提高低碳技术转移成功率；（4）多方位提升低碳技术使用率。

Abstract:

In view of the problem of promotion strategy of high-carbon industry's low-carbon transformation power, we use the epidemic model to analyze the high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion model based on the SEIR model. On this basis, we use the software anylogic to construct the system dynamics model of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion and carry on the system simulation. The simulation results show that with the change of parameters, the diffusion equilibrium point and the active degree of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion will also change.When the basic regeneration number of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion is more than one, low carbon technology will continue to spread among enterprises once there is a new low carbon technology diffusion source and finally enter a certain equilibrium state；When the basic regeneration number is less than one, the system will eventually enter a state of equilibrium without the diffusion of low-carbon technologies no matter how many enterprises begin to spread low-carbon technologies. According to the simulation results, four countermeasures are proposed：(1)Multi-channels to create low-carbon technology diffusion sources; (2)Multi-levels to promote low-carbon technology transfer willingness; (3)Multi-methods to increase the success rate of low-carbon technology transfer; (4)Multi-aspects to improve the utilization rate of low-carbon Technology.