利用“一带一路”沿线17个省（市）2007—2016年的面板数据实证分析民间投资、农业科技进步与农业产业结构升级之间的影响效应。研究结果表明：沿线各省（市）农业科技进步率呈逐年增加趋势且沿海五省农业科技进步水平高于内陆地区。整体而言，民间投资有效促进了农业科技进步但并未促进农业产业结构升级，农业科技进步对农业产业结构升级的负向效应显著。分地区来看，西北六省和沿海五省的民间投资对农业科技进步的正向作用显著，而东北三省和西南三省影响效果甚微；东北三省和西北六省的农业科技进步对农业产业结构升级有正向影响但不显著，而西南三省和沿海五省负向效果显著；考虑到农业科技进步对民间投资的调节效应时，只有沿海五省农业科技进步对农业产业结构升级的负向效应显著，其它地区有正向影响但不显著。

To empirically analyze the impact of private investment，agricultural science and technology progress and agricultural industrial structure upgrading by using the panel data of 17 provinces in 2007—2016 along the “Belt and Road”. The results show that the progress rate of agricultural science and technology in each province (city) along the line is increasing year by year and the level of agricultural science and technology progress in the five coastal provinces is higher than that in inland areas. On the whole, private investment has effectively promoted agricultural science and technology progress but did not promote the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. The negative impact of agricultural science and technology progress on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure was significant. In terms of regions, the private investment in the six northwestern provinces and the five coastal provinces has a significant positive effect on agricultural science and technology progress, while the three northeastern provinces and the three southwestern provinces have little effect; Agricultural science and technology advancement has a positive impact on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure but is not significant in the three northeastern provinces and six northwestern provinces, while it has significant negative effects in the three southwestern provinces and the five coastal provinces. Considering the adjustment effect of agricultural science and technology progress on private investment, only the negative effects of agricultural science and technology progress on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure in the five coastal provinces significantly, other regions have positive effects but are not significant.

国家社会科学“基于生态弹性视角的农地可持续发展评价研究”(16BJL070)