新兴产业突破性技术由路径向轨道演化的机制研究

Research on the Evolutionary Mechanism of Breakthrough Technology in Emerging Industries from Path to Orbit

摘要:

技术是驱动经济发展的重要力量,产业发展技术路径一直是国内外研究的热点,但对技术路径与技术轨道之间的关系以及二者之间的演化机制的研究稍显匮乏。从产业经济和战略转型的需求出发,探讨路径依赖与路径突破的内涵,将其融入到技术轨道理论中,以此构建突破性技术由路径向轨道演化的模型,并引用动态演化博弈模型在技术轨道跃迁临界点处进行创新模式选择,结果表示：创新风险较大时,产业内创新能力强的主体更容易选择突破式创新；反之创新风险较小时,市场偏好会决定产业内各主体创新模式的选择。

Abstract:

Technology is an important force driving economic development. The technological path of industrial development has always been a hot topic at home and abroad. However, the relationship between the technological path and the technical track and the evolutionary mechanism between the two are somewhat scarce. From the perspective of the needs of industrial economy and strategic transformation, we explore the connotation of path dependence and path breakthrough and integrate it into the technology track theory to construct a model of breakthrough technology evolution from path to orbit, and cite dynamic evolutionary game model in technology. The innovation mode selection at the critical point of orbital transition indicates that: when the risk of innovation is high, the entities with strong innovation ability in the industry are more likely to choose breakthrough innovation; when the risk of innovation is small, the market preference will determine the innovation modes of the main entities in the industry select.