新能源汽车产业与美丽中国系统耦合协调发展及预测研究

Research on Coordinated Development and Prediction of New Energy Automobile Industry and Beautiful China System

摘要:

美丽中国是一个以生态文明建设为核心,经济、政治、文化与社会和谐发展的复杂巨系统。发展新能源汽车产业不仅可以破解环境污染和能源短缺的双重危机,而且能够培育新的经济增长点,与美丽中国建设具有天然的耦合性。通过文献研究与专家咨询,选取新能源汽车产业发展和美丽中国建设综合评价指标体系,在此基础上,采用改进的熵值法,构建耦合协调度模型和BP神经网络预测模型,对动态耦合问题进行定量研究。研究发现：(1)新能源汽车产业系统和美丽中国系统的综合发展水平均呈现稳定上升态势,整体而言新能源汽车产业发展相对滞后；(2)新能源汽车产业-美丽中国系统耦合度始终处于由拮抗向磨合过渡的阶段,但两大系统的相互联系和相互促进作用逐渐加强,耦合协调效益正在逐步提升；(3)预测结果表明未来5年新能源汽车产业系统与美丽中国系统协同发展功效持续增强,耦合协调度将从中级协调跨入良好协调阶段。

Abstract:

Beautiful China is a complex giant system with ecological civilization construction as its core and harmonious development of economy, politics, culture and society. The development of new energy automobile industry can not only solve the dual crisis of environmental pollution and energy shortage, but also cultivate new economic growth point, which is naturally coupled with the construction of beautiful China. Through literature research and expert consultation, the comprehensive evaluation index system for the development of new energy automobile industry and the construction of beautiful China is selected, on this basis, the improved entropy method is adopted, and the coupling coordination degree model and BP neural network prediction model are constructed to quantitatively study the dynamic coupling problem. The results show that: (1) the comprehensive development level of the new energy automobile industry system and the beautiful China system both show a steady upward trend, and the development of the new energy automobile industry is relatively lagging behind on the whole; (2) The coupling degree between the new energy automobile industry and the beautiful China system has been in the transition from antagonism to running-in, but the mutual relationship and mutual promotion between the two systems are gradually strengthened, and the coupling and coordination benefits are gradually improving. (3) The forecast results indicate that the synergetic development efficiency of the new energy vehicle industry system and the beautiful China system will continue to increase in the next five years, and the coupling coordination degree will step from the intermediate coordination to a good coordination stage.