商业航天领域军民科技资源融合行为的演化博弈分析

Analysis on the Military and Civilian Scientific and Technological Resource Integration Behavior in Commercial Spaceflight Based on the Evolutionary Game Theory

摘要:

在国家大力推动军民融合的背景下，商业航天军民科技资源融合对推动我国商业航天产业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于演化博弈理论构建军工企业和民用企业间科技资源融合行为选择的决策模型，并通过复制动态方程对策略选择进行稳定性分析。在此基础上，运用Matlab7.0软件进行模拟仿真，结果表明：军工企业与民用企业相互间积极进行科技资源融合所产生的合作收益直接影响二者间融合质量，不理想的合作收益容易诱发机会主义行为，不利于二者的融合；军工企业与民用企业间科技资源融合产生的收益分配合理性与否直接影响军民二者融合行为的演化方向，且按劳分配最有利于军民二者间的高质量融合；军工企业或民用企业消极融合所受到惩罚力度的大小也是影响其相互间融合的重要因素，较大的违约成本或代价能有效抑制二者机会主义行为的出现。最后，从协同价值的创造、利益分配机制的完善、约束机制的制定三方面提出了助推我国商业航天军民科技资源有效融合的建议。

关键词:商业航天;军民融合;科技资源;演化博弈

Abstract:

The military and civilian resource integration behavior in commercial spaceflight that is of great significance to the high-quality development of commercial spaceflight under the background that our country vigorously promotes military and civilian integration. The decision-making model of the military and civilian resource integration behavior choice between military and civilian enterprises is built based on evolutionary game theory, and stable strategies are analyzed by replicator dynamics equation. The evolution behaviors of military and civilian enterprises in the military and civilian resource integration are analyzed and based on the above analysis some numerical simulations are given using the Matlab7.0. The results show that: the cooperation benefits of active resource integration between military and civilian enterprises directly affect the quality of the military and civilian resource integration, and poor cooperation benefits will induce opportunistic behavior, which is not conducive to the integration of both; The reasonable distribution of cooperation benefits directly affect the evolution direction of the behavior of military and civilian resource integration, and for profit allocation, distributing according to work, which is beneficial to high-quality integration of both; The punishments caused negative integration are also important factors of the integration of both, and the higher default costs can effectively restrain the emergence of their opportunistic behavior. Finally, suggestions are put forward from the three aspects of collaborative value creation, the perfection of benefit distribution mechanism and the formulation of the constraint mechanism.

Key words:commercial spaceflight; military and civilian integration; scientific and technological resource; evolutionary game