经济-社会-自然复合影响下的区域人才流动仿真与发展研究——以天津市为例

Research on the Simulation and Development of Regional Talent Flow under the Influence of Economic-Society-Nature Complex——Taking Tianjin as an Example

摘要:

基于系统动力学构建了经济-社会-自然复合影响下区域人才流动的动力学模型,并以天津市为实证案例,对其人才流动趋势进行定量化动态仿真与模拟。通过调节模型的决策变量,设定了天津市5种人才流动的情形方案,一是通过设计3种人才政策优先级情形,得到经济、社会和自然三类影响因素对天津市人才流动的影响强度排序,即社会公共服务的影响强度最大,经济次之,自然环境最小；二是通过设计2种人才政策导向情形,预判了天津市更适宜采用生态宜居环境导向型发展道路。政策仿真实验的结果可为天津市未来规划、治理和发展提供决策支持,也证明了该模型方法应用于其他地区具有可行性。

Abstract:

Based on the system dynamics, a dynamic model of regional talent flow under the influence of economic-society-natural complex was constructed. Taking Tianjin as an empirical case, the talent flow trend was simulated and simulated quantitatively. By adjusting the model"s decision variables, five types of talent flow scenarios in Tianjin were set. First, by designing three types of talent policy priorities, the impact of economic, social and natural factors on the flow of talent in Tianjin was obtained. The sorting, that is, the social public service has the greatest impact strength, followed by the economy, and the minimum natural environment. Second, by designing two kinds of human resources policy-oriented situations, it is predicted that Tianjin City is more suitable to adopt the ecological livable environment-oriented development road. The results of the policy simulation experiment provide decision support for Tianjin"s future planning, governance, and development, and at the same time it also proves that the model method is applicable to other regions.