摘要：本文运用三阶段DEA—Malmquist模型测算了中国30个省份农业技术进步估计值，利用系统广义矩估计考察农村人力资本、农业技术进步对农业碳排放的影响。结果表明：从国家层面，农业技术进步增加了农业碳排放总量，农业碳排放具有强路径依赖性和滞后性，农村人力资本的提升在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用；从地域层面，东部技术进步值最低，中部农业碳排放总量最高，西部技术进步值最高、农业碳排放总量最低。东部农村人力资本在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用，西部地区农村人力资本、农业产业结构在农业技术进步对农业碳排放的正影响中起到显著的负向调节作用。

Abstracts: The three-stage DEA-Malmquist model is used to measure the total factor productivity, technological progress index and technical efficiency change index of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2016. The emission factor method is used to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions, and the SYS-GMM is used to examine the impact of rural human capital and agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. The research shows that: First, from the national level, agricultural technology advancement increased the agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural carbon emissions have strong path dependence characteristics and lag. The improvement of rural human capital plays a significant negative adjustment role in the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. Second, from the geographical level, the highest total factor productivity in the west, and the agricultural carbon emissions is the lowest. The total factor productivity in the east is the lowest, and the carbon emissions in the central agriculture is the highest. Third, Eastern rural human capital has played a significant negative role in regulating the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. Rural human capital and agricultural industries in the western region play significant negative adjustment role in the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions.

国家软科学项目“利用国际科技合作资源打造东北现代农业升级版对策研究”(编号：2014GXS2D017)；黑龙江省社科基金项目“粮食安全框架下黑龙江省种子产业创新战略研究”（14B066）；哈尔滨市科技局软科学重点项目“发挥我市对台科技合作优势，做强绿色食品产业链的对策研究”（编号：2017AC9QT010）；黑龙江省软科学研究项目“黑龙江省绿色食品品牌战略研究”（GC15D111）。