Abstract:Abstracts: The three-stage DEA-Malmquist model is used to measure the total factor productivity, technological progress index and technical efficiency change index of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2016. The emission factor method is used to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions, and the SYS-GMM is used to examine the impact of rural human capital and agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. The research shows that: First, from the national level, agricultural technology advancement increased the agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural carbon emissions have strong path dependence characteristics and lag. The improvement of rural human capital plays a significant negative adjustment role in the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. Second, from the geographical level, the highest total factor productivity in the west, and the agricultural carbon emissions is the lowest. The total factor productivity in the east is the lowest, and the carbon emissions in the central agriculture is the highest. Third, Eastern rural human capital has played a significant negative role in regulating the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions. Rural human capital and agricultural industries in the western region play significant negative adjustment role in the impact of agricultural technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions.