经济新常态背景下江苏省碳排放驱动效应研究

Research on the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province under the Background of China’s New Normal

摘要:

文章以经济新常态为研究背景,基于江苏省2006—2016年碳排放量相关数据,运用LMDI分析方法,将江苏省碳排放的驱动效应分解为经济规模效应、产业结构效应、技术进步效应及能耗结构效应,并对江苏省工业,建筑业,交通运输、仓储及邮电通讯业,批发和零售贸易餐饮业,农、林、牧、渔、水利业及其他行业进行碳排放的分解研究。研究结果表明经济规模效应是影响江苏省碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素,产业结构效应与技术进步效应江苏省碳排放起到负向影响,能够有效抑制江苏省碳排放量的增加,而能耗结构效应对江苏省碳排放的影响并不稳定。从行业角度分析发现,工业碳排放量在江苏省碳排放总量中的占比较大,而其他行业的碳排放量远小于工业碳排放量。最后,本文基于实证研究结果,结合经济新常态的特点,就江苏省如何进一步有效推进节能减排工作,分别从产业结构优化,技术水平创新和能源消费结构变动三个角度提出相应的减排措施与建议。

Abstract:

Under the background of China’s New Normal and based on the data of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2016, This paper divides the driving factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province into economic scale, industrial structure, technological progress and energy consumption structure, and researches on the structure of carbon emissions in the industrial, construction, transportation, warehousing and postal and telecommunications industries, wholesale and retail trade and catering industries, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries, water conservancy and other industries in Jiangsu Province. The research indicates that economic scale is the main driving factor affecting the increase of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, industrial structure and technological progress have a negative impact on the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, which can effectively suppress the increase of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, but the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is not stable. From the perspective of industry, it is found that industrial carbon emissions account for a large proportion of total carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, while other industries have carbon emissions that are much smaller than industrial carbon emissions. Finally, based on the results of empirical research and the characteristics of China’s New Normal, this paper proposes corresponding measures and suggestions on how to further promote energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction in Jiangsu Province from three perspectives: industrial structure optimization, technological level innovation and energy consumption structure change.