京津冀水资源承载力模糊评价及关键驱动因素分析

Fuzzy Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity i and Analysis of Key Drivers of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebe

摘要:

对水资源承载力进行科学评价和驱动因素分析,可为区域水资源的合理开发利用和规划提供决策依据。从水资源供需-社会经济发展-生态环境复合系统中选取12个影响水资源承载力的因素构建指标评价体系,引入变权理论对2005—2016年京津冀地区水资源承载力进行模糊综合评价,并运用DEMATEL方法识别出其关键驱动因素。结果表明：①2005—2009年的水资源承载力综合评价值均小于0.4,处于严重超载状态；2009—2016年间其评价值在0.4和0.7之间,承载能力适中。②北京、天津、河北三地水资源承载力呈现波动上升的趋势,其中河北省的水资源承载力增长趋势稍明显高于北京和天津。③在水资源承载力的影响因素中,其中供水模数、人口密度和城镇化率起着关键驱动因素。最后,为提高水资源承载能力,实现水资源一体化保护,促进生态环境和社会经济协同发展提供政策建议。

Abstract:

Scientific evaluation of water resources carrying capacity can provide decision-making basis for rational development, utilization and planning of regional water resources. Selected 12 factors what affect water resources carrying capacity as evaluation indicators from the supply and demand of water resources-socio-economic development - ecological environment composite system, introduced Variable Weight Theory and implemented Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from 2005 to 2016, and used the DEMATEL method to identified it was key drivers. The results showed:①The comprehensive evaluation value of water resources carrying capacity between 2005 and 2009 was less than 0.4,in a severe overload state; Its evaluated value is between 0.4 and 0.7 from 2009 to 2016, the carrying capacity was moderate.②The water resources carrying capacity of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei were an Fluctuating upward trend, among them, the growth trend of water resources carrying capacity in Hebei Province was slightly obvious compared to Beijing and Tianjin. ③Among various influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity, water supply modulus, population density and urbanization rate were key drivers. According to this, provided policy advice in order to improve the water resources carrying capacity, realize the integrated protection of water resources and promote the coordinated development of the ecological environment and social economy.