省域大气污染治理的系统动力学分析--以福建省为例

System Dynamics Analysis of Atmospheric pollution Control in Provincial Region——Taking Fujian Province as an example

摘要:

我国城市大气污染日益严重，尽快探寻出其影响因素并提出针对性的政策建议应成为社会研究的热点问题。本文从福建省经济、人口、科技、能源和环境等角度出发，建立大气污染防治系统动力学模型，通过设定单一政策、多项政策组合等情景进行系统仿真和模拟分析，最终确定最优政策组合方案，对福建省进一步开展大气污染防治工作提出具体措施。研究发现：三种主要污染物的减排空间越来越小，只有同时将经济增长、产业结构、能源结构、环保投资等多项政策进行组合调控，减排效果更好。因此，本文提出了合理分配固定资产投资、提高科技创新能力、优化产业结构、调整能源消费结构、完善环境经济政策等对策建议，进一步推动福建省大气污染治理工作的顺利开展。

Abstract:

In our country,the air pollution in city is becoming more and more serious. It should be a hot issue in social research to find out the influencing factors and put forward some relevant policy suggestions as soon as possible.This paper focuese on the economy, population, energy, technology and environment to make a comprehensive and systematic analysis of each influencing factor. At the same time it builds a systematic model of air pollution prevention in Fujian Province.This paper sets up a singel policy and several policy combinations to carry out systematic simulation and analysis,then choosing the optimal policy combination scheme for the development of air pollution prevention and control in Fujian Province. It is found that the emission reduction space ofthe three main pollutants is becoming smaller and smaller. The emission reduction effect is better when combining the policies of economic growth, industrial structure, energy structure and environmental protection investment.Therefore, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to further promote the development of air pollution control in Fujian Province,such as rational allocation of fixed assets investment, improvement of scientific and technological innovation ability, optimization of industrial structure, adjustment of energy consumption structure, improvement of environmental economic policies.